*Replication Instructions for

*Going Public About Cyber Attacks: Public Threat Sensitivity and Support for Escalation in the United States and Russia

*Sam Whitt, Vitali Shkliarov, Vera Mironova


*Below are instructions for replicating all manuscript and online appendix tables and figures in STATA using the dataset "US Russia cybersecurity replication data.dta". Please contact Sam Whitt (swhitt@highpoint.edu) for questions regarding data replication. See also the dofile "US Russia cybersecurity replication do file". 

*Note: You may need to install STATA packages for the cibar, catcibar, and iebaltab commands. Use findit with the command name to identify and download the appropriate packets to install. 

*Note: In addition, some graphs require additional formatting using filename.grec files with the graph play command. To format a graph, simply run the command to generate the graph in the do file in STATA, then open the "Graph Editor" in STATA and click on the GREEN "Play Recording" button, then select "Browse" to select the grec file from the folder "grec files for STATA graph formatting" among Replication files. The name of the grec file is indicated in the note below the graph command in the do file for the specific graph you wish to format. This should automatically format the graph, which you may then save to a location of your choosing.

*Manuscript Replication

*"Stata user generated commands to install for replication purposes"

*"cibar"

ssc install cibar, replace

*"iebaltab from ietoolkit"

ssc install ietoolkit, replace

*"catcibar"

net install catcibar, from("https://aarondwolf.github.io/catcibar") replace

*Manuscript Replication

*In text replication

*Factor analysis indicates that responses to these items aligned well on single latent dimensions, so we created indices of personal threat sensitivity (Factor 1 Eigenvalue = 2.48, Cronbach's alpha=0.86) and national threat sensitivity (Factor 1 Eigenvalue = 2.43, Cronbach alpha=0.87) which both range from 1=not at all concerned to 4=very concerned. 

factor revcyber_emails- revcyber_health 
alpha revcyber_emails- revcyber_health 

factor revcyber_business- revcyber_infrastructure 
alpha revcyber_business- revcyber_infrastructure 

*We find that priming on U.S. accusations of a Russian attack has the highest impact on threat sensitivity in the United States, relative to the control group (Cohen's d=0.19). 

esize twosample alphagenthreat if cybertxt~=2 & russia==0, by(cybertxt)

*We found that Americans are more threatened by Russia than Russians of the United States (unpaired t-test=18.8, p<0.0000). 

ttest revthreat, by(usa) unpaired unequal

*Substantively, 49.5% of Russians agreed that the United States is a threat compared to 79.8% of Americans who view Russia as a threat. 

tab threat if russia==1
tab threat if usa==1

*Factor analysis indicates that responses align on single latent dimensions, so we combined responses into indices for defensive cyber responses (Factor 1 Eigenvalue =1.57, alpha=0.80) and offensive cyber responses (Factor 1 Eigenvalue =1.26, alpha=0.72).  

factor revwarnpublic revincsecurity revdiplomacy 
alpha revwarnpublic revincsecurity revdiplomacy 

factor revsanctions revcyberattack revmilstrike 
alpha revsanctions revcyberattack revmilstrike 

*Americans are more prone to escalation when primed about either the U.S. or Russian government going public about cyberattacks relative to control (Cohen's d=0.08, 0.15 respectively). 

esize twosample revmilstrike if cybertxt~=2 & russia==0, by(cybertxt)
esize twosample revmilstrike if cybertxt~=1 & russia==0, by(cybertxt)

*Russians in the going public treatments are less inclined to escalation than in the control group, preferring defensive options even in the face of public accusations of cyberattacks by either their own government or by a rival power, the United States (Cohen's d=-0.10, -0.12 respectively). 

esize twosample revmilstrike if cybertxt~=2 & russia==1, by(cybertxt)
esize twosample revmilstrike if cybertxt~=1 & russia==1, by(cybertxt)

*Manuscript Tables and Figures 

*Figure 2. Cyber Threat Sensitivity by Treatment, Country (ATEs)

catcibar alphaperthreat alphagenthreat, over(cybertxt) by(usa)

*Note additional formatting requires the "Figure 2 Formatting.grec" file with the command graph play "Figure 2 Formatting.grec" 

*Table 1. Average Treatment Effects on Threat Sensitivity (OLS Regression)

reg alphaperthreat i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revthreat i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg alphaperthreat i.cybertxt##usa  revthreat female i.agecat, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt##usa alphaperthreat revthreat female i.agecat, robust

*Figure 3. Cyber Response Options by Treatment, Country

catcibar alphadefense alphaoffense, over(cybertxt) by(usa)

*Note additional formatting requires the "Figure 3 Formatting.grec" file with the command graph play "Figure 3 Formatting.grec" 

*Table 2. Average Treatment Effects on Cyber Response (OLS Regression)

reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revoffensejust i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa  alphagenthreat revthreat revoffensejust  female i.agecat, robust

*Appendix Replication
 
*Appendix Table 1. Summary of Variables and Demographics (United States)

sum i.cybertxt alphaperthreat revcyber_email revcyber_files revcyber_banking revcyber_health alphagenthreat revcyber_business revcyber_govmil revcyber_elections revcyber_infrastructure revthreat revenemy revdefensejust revoffensejust female i.agecat education i.partyid i.race dlatino devangelical i.census_region if usa==1

*Appendix Table 2. Summary of Variables and Demographics (Russia)

sum i.cybertxt alphaperthreat revcyber_email revcyber_files revcyber_banking revcyber_health alphagenthreat revcyber_business revcyber_govmil revcyber_elections revcyber_infrastructure revthreat revenemy revdefensejust revoffensejust female i.agecat i.strata i.region if russia==1

*Threat Sensitivity Index Construction and Validation

catcibar revcyber_emails- revcyber_infrastructure, over(usa)

*Note additional formatting requires the "Cyber threat options formatting.grec" file with the command graph play "Cyber threat options formatting.grec" 

*Factor Analysis of Personal Threat Sensitivity (United States)

factor revcyber_emails- revcyber_health if usa==1
alpha revcyber_emails- revcyber_health if usa==1

*Factor Analysis of Personal Threat Sensitivity (Russia)

factor revcyber_emails- revcyber_health if russia==1
alpha revcyber_emails- revcyber_health  if russia==1

*Factor Analysis of National Threat Sensitivity (United States)

factor revcyber_business- revcyber_infrastructure if usa==1
alpha revcyber_business- revcyber_infrastructure if usa==1

*Factor Analysis of National Threat Sensitivity (Russia)

factor revcyber_business- revcyber_infrastructure if russia==1
alpha revcyber_business- revcyber_infrastructure  if russia==1

*Appendix Table 3. Balance Tests Across Treatment Groups (United States)

iebaltab partyid female age education race dlatino dbornusa devangelical census_region, groupvar(cybertxt) control(0) savexlsx(usa)

*Appendix Table 4. Balance Tests Across Treatment Groups (Russia)

iebaltab female agecat strata region if russia==1, groupvar(cybertxt) control(0) savexlsx(russia)

*Manuscript Table 1 Robustness Checks (United States, Extended Controls)

reg alphaperthreat i.cybertxt if usa==1, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt if usa==1, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt alphaperthreat revthreat ib3.partyid female age education ib2.race dlatino dbornusa devangelical i.census_region if partyid<4 & usa==1, robust

*Manuscript Table 1 Robustness Checks (Russia, Extended Controls)

reg alphaperthreat i.cybertxt if russia==1, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt if russia==1, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt alphaperthreat revthreat female i.agecat i.strata i.region if russia==1, robust

*Response Escalation Index Validity and Construction

catcibar revwarnpublic-revmilstrike, over(usa)

*Note additional formatting requires the "Cyber response options formatting.grec" file with the command graph play "Cyber response options formatting.grec" 

catcibar revwarnpublic-revmilstrike, over(cybertxt) by(usa)

*Note additional formatting requires the "Cyber response options 2 formatting.grec" file with the command graph play "Cyber response options 2 formatting.grec" 

*Factor Analysis of Offensive Response Options (United States)

factor revsanctions revcyberattack revmilstrike if usa==1
alpha revsanctions revcyberattack revmilstrike  if usa==1

*Factor Analysis of Defensive Response Options (United States)

factor revwarnpublic revincsecurity revdiplomacy if usa==1
alpha revwarnpublic revincsecurity revdiplomacy if usa==1

*Factor Analysis of Offensive Response Options (Russia)

factor revsanctions revcyberattack revmilstrike if russia==1
alpha revsanctions revcyberattack revmilstrike if russia==1

*Factor Analysis of Defensive Response Options (Russia)

factor revwarnpublic revincsecurity revdiplomacy if russia==1
alpha revwarnpublic revincsecurity revdiplomacy  if russia==1

*Manuscript Table 2 Robustness Checks (United States, Extended Controls)

reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt if usa==1, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt if usa==1, robust
reg revoffensejust i.cybertxt if usa==1, robust
reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt alphagenthreat revthreat revoffensejust ib3.partyid female age education i.race dlatino dbornusa devangelical i.census_region if partyid<4 & usa==1, robust

*Manuscript Table 2 Robustness Checks (Russia, Extended Controls)

reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt if russia==1, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt if russia==1, robust
reg revoffensejust i.cybertxt if russia==1, robust
reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt alphagenthreat revoffensejust revthreat female i.agecat i.strata i.region if russia==1, robust

*Manuscript Table 2. Stepwise Regression (OLS)

reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa  alphagenthreat, robust
reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa  alphagenthreat revthreat, robust
reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa  alphagenthreat revthreat revoffensejust, robust
reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa  alphagenthreat revthreat revoffensejust  female i.agecat, robust

*Response Escalation Mediation Analysis

*Potential Mechanisms Driving Escalation

catcibar alphaperthreat alphagenthreat revenemy revthreat revdefensejust revoffensejust, over(usa)

*Note additional formatting requires the "Mechanisms Formatting.grec" file with the command graph play "Mechanisms Formatting.grec" 

*First-stage Regression on Mediator Variables (OLS Regression)

reg alphaperthreat i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg alphagenthreat i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revthreat i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revenemy i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revdefensejust i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revoffensejust i.cybertxt##usa, robust

*National Threat Sensitivity as Mediator of Response Escalation (US Sample)

medeff (regress alphagenthreat cybertxtusa) (regress alphaoffense alphagenthreat cybertxtusa  ) if cybertxtusa~=2 & usa==1, mediate(alphagenthreat) treat(cybertxtusa )

medsens (regress alphagenthreat cybertxtusa) (regress alphaoffense alphagenthreat cybertxtusa  ) if cybertxtusa~=2 & usa==1, mediate(alphagenthreat) treat(cybertxtusa )

medeff (regress alphagenthreat cybertxtusa) (regress alphaoffense alphagenthreat cybertxtusa  ) if cybertxtusa~=1 & usa==1, mediate(alphagenthreat) treat(cybertxtusa )

medsens (regress alphagenthreat cybertxtusa) (regress alphaoffense alphagenthreat cybertxtusa  ) if cybertxtusa~=1 & usa==1, mediate(alphagenthreat) treat(cybertxtusa )

*Justifiability of Offense as Mediator of Response Escalation (US Sample)

medeff (regress revoffensejust cybertxtusa) (regress alphaoffense revoffensejust cybertxtusa) if cybertxtusa~=2 & usa==1, mediate(revoffensejust) treat(cybertxtusa )

medsens (regress revoffensejust cybertxtusa) (regress alphaoffense revoffensejust cybertxtusa) if cybertxtusa~=2 & usa==1, mediate(revoffensejust) treat(cybertxtusa )

medeff (regress revoffensejust cybertxtusa) (regress alphaoffense revoffensejust cybertxtusa) if cybertxtusa~=1 & usa==1, mediate(revoffensejust) treat(cybertxtusa )

medsens (regress revoffensejust cybertxtusa) (regress alphaoffense revoffensejust cybertxtusa) if cybertxtusa~=1 & usa==1, mediate(revoffensejust) treat(cybertxtusa )

*Sensitivity Analysis of U.S. Threat Sensitivity and Response Escalation Treatment Effects

regsensitivity bounds alphagenthreat cybertxt alphaperthreat revthreat partyid female age education race dlatino dbornusa devangelical census_region if cybertxt~=1, dmp

regsensitivity bounds alphaoffense cybertxt alphaperthreat revthreat revoffensejust partyid female age education race dlatino dbornusa devangelical census_region if cybertxt~=1, dmp

*Treatment Effects with Pre-treatment Moderation by Prior Awareness of Cybersecurity Concepts (Russia Only)

cibar alphagenthreat, over1(cybertxt) over2(q0)
cibar alphaoffense, over1(cybertxt) over2(q0)

*Note additional formatting requires the "Awareness Formatting.grec" file with the command graph play "Awareness Formatting.grec" 

*Treatment Effects with Pre-treatment Moderation by Colonial Pipeline Attacks (US Only)

cibar alphagenthreat if usa==1, over1(cybertxt) over2(pipeline)
cibar alphaoffense if usa==1, over1(cybertxt) over2(pipeline)

*Note additional formatting requires the "Pipeline Formatting.grec" file with the command graph play "Pipeline Formatting.grec" 

*Treatment Effects with Moderation by Partisanship (US Only)

cibar alphagenthreat if partyid<4, over1(cybertxt) over2(partyid)
cibar alphaoffense if partyid<4, over1(cybertxt) over2(partyid)

*Defensive Response Preferences

reg alphadefense i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revdefensejust i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg alphadefense i.cybertxt##usa  alphagenthreat revthreat  revdefensejust  female i.agecat, robust

*Response Escalation by Index Components

*Response Escalation by Response Type (OLS Regression)

reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revsanctions i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revcyberattack i.cybertxt##usa, robust
reg revmilstrike i.cybertxt##usa, robust

*Response Escalation by Response Type with Extended Controls (OLS Regression)

reg alphaoffense i.cybertxt##usa alphagenthreat revthreat  revoffensejust  female i.agecat, robust
reg revsanctions i.cybertxt##usa alphagenthreat revthreat  revoffensejust  female i.agecat, robust
reg revcyberattack i.cybertxt##usa alphagenthreat revthreat  revoffensejust  female i.agecat, robust
reg revmilstrike i.cybertxt##usa alphagenthreat revthreat  revoffensejust  female i.agecat, robust

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